2026 Deal momentum: why quality assets are commanding attention in a selective market
Capital is moving again, but it is moving with intent. Recent activity across Australian public markets, private equity and corporate strategics shows a clear pattern. Investors are active, but they are selective. Assets with scale, defensibility and credible growth stories are attracting global interest. Those without them are facing tougher conversations.
At the same time, global macro settings are shifting quickly. Middle East tensions are disrupting infrastructure routes. Currency markets are reacting. Rate expectations in the UK have swung dramatically, underscoring how fast pricing adjusts to geopolitical risk. For founders and business owners preparing for an exit in 2026, this environment rewards readiness, discipline and strong strategic positioning.
MSA’s latest insights show that despite volatility, mid market activity across APAC is lifting as buyers gain clarity on capital costs and policy settings. This is consistent with broader trends across MSA’s resources hub, including forecasts showing modest but improving growth across major economies and rising deal confidence across EMEA, Latin America and North America.
Why this matters now
Businesses are entering a year defined by constraints rather than abundance. Capital is available but it is cautious. Buyers are concentrating their efforts on assets that demonstrate clear pathways to profitability and growth. In both public markets and private markets, investors are rewarding quality and punishing fragility.
For SME owners planning a future sale, this matters. The gap between businesses that are prepared and those that are not will widen. Being exit ready no longer provides an advantage. It is a requirement.
What the market is signalling
Public markets
Magellan surged almost 22 percent after securing a 130 million dollar institutional raise to support its proposed merger with Barrenjoey. For a business under pressure, the raise is more than capital. It signals a strategic pivot toward capability and relevance in a changing funds management landscape.
Private equity
Private equity is back on the front foot. TPG Capital is preparing a 1.5 to 2 billion dollar exit of Made Group, drawing offshore buyer interest. Bain Capital is progressing a 1 billion dollar sale of Up Education. Large sponsor exits are moving again and global capital is circling Australian assets.
Strategic acquirers
Strategics remain active. Stockland has partnered with EdgeConneX to build and operate data centres, reinforcing the strength of digital infrastructure as a long term conviction theme. Meanwhile, IREN’s promotional activity in Sydney combined with hesitation to develop locally highlights the impact of regulatory friction. Capital is mobile and policy settings influence where it lands.
Global macro
Events in the Middle East have interrupted infrastructure and influenced currency movements. The UK market has rapidly repriced rate expectations. Only a week ago, markets implied an 80 percent probability of a March rate cut. That probability has fallen to around 20 percent. Caution from the Bank of England appears likely.
The UK Spring Forecast update was steady on the surface, with improved debt and deficit projections. The OBR projects unemployment rising to 5.3 percent this year, with labour market conditions expected to soften further. The longer term assumption of 4.1 percent unemployment looks optimistic compared with broader consensus.
MSA insights on deal momentum
Recent updates on the MSA resources hub reinforce these themes. Mid market activity across APAC continues to build, supported by renewed private equity interest and greater confidence in policy and capital settings. Global forecasts for 2026 have been revised slightly upward, with modest improvements across the UK, US and China contributing to firmer buyer sentiment.
What this means for sellers and buyers
Capital is available but selective
Investors are pursuing fewer deals but leaning in hard when they see strategic fit and growth potential.
Quality is attracting global attention
Buyers are prepared to pay for scale, defensibility, strong leadership and clear commercial momentum.
Macro and geopolitical shocks are being priced instantly
Information moves fast. Buyers adjust faster.
Vendors need to be realistic
Valuations for strong assets are holding. Over leveraged or subscale businesses face more scrutiny.
Buyers need to be decisive
Competitive tension is returning. Hesitation risks losing deals.
How MSA helps businesses stand out
MSA’s EBITDA+ SIX STEPS TO SUCCESS framework equips owners to navigate market cycles through clarity, preparation and disciplined execution. The program strengthens the operational, financial and strategic foundations that buyers value most.
The internal MSA materials emphasise the importance of:
Gathering the right market intelligence and shaping strategy around buyer priorities
Preparing well organised, comprehensive business information that presents the business professionally and accelerates buyer engagement
Making strategic choices that sharpen value, reduce risk and signal credibility to acquirers
When the market rewards quality, preparation becomes a competitive advantage.
Practical steps for founders preparing for an exit
Review your growth story. Can you articulate a clear, defensible path forward.
Strengthen operational and financial foundations. Remove friction points that buyers will uncover.
Prepare your information early. A clean, complete and accessible data room enhances confidence.
Understand your likely buyer groups. Tailor your narrative to what matters most to them.
Assess where your business sits in the current market. Be realistic about valuation and deal structuring.
2026 is shaping as a year of divergence. Strong assets will transact smoothly. Businesses that are underprepared or over leveraged will find conditions more challenging. If you want to understand how your business would perform in this market, or if you are considering a sale in the next one to three years, MSA can help.
Book a confidential discussion or explore the latest insights at the MSA resources hub.