Is M&A really back in 2026? What business owners need to know
A market that is warming, not surging
After two turbulent years, many business owners are asking whether mergers and acquisitions have genuinely returned. The answer is yes, although the rebound is selective and shaped by more disciplined buyer behaviour. Global dealmaking is picking up, but the fundamentals matter more than ever.
Across the Morgan Shaw Advisory market insights, deal confidence has improved in Latin America, EMEA and North America, with Asia holding steady and continuing to command premium valuations. Buyers are pursuing fewer opportunities, but with greater intent. Quality assets are attracting competition, while weaker assets are struggling to gain traction.
Private equity activity is also strengthening. Expected EBITDA multiples are trending above 2025 levels, with typical assets averaging 6.8 times and premium assets at 9.8 times. Asia leads global valuations, followed by North America, while pricing expectations in EMEA and Latin America remain more cautious due to central bank movements.
At the same time, geopolitics has overtaken inflation as the top concern shaping how businesses allocate resources and structure deals. This shift affects sectors differently, with aerospace, defence, government and security, business services and technology expected to outperform due to their lower exposure to supply chain disruptions.
Why this matters for SME owners
This new environment rewards businesses that are well prepared, strategically positioned and able to demonstrate consistent performance. The market is no longer volatile, yet it is more constrained, which means buyers are placing significant weight on recurring revenue, margin durability and defensible cashflow.
For owners planning an exit within the next one to three years, understanding how these dynamics influence valuation, buyer behaviour and deal timelines is essential. High quality preparation is becoming a core requirement, not a differentiator.
What is shaping M&A activity in 2026
Cross‑border momentum is returning
Growing confidence across Latin America, EMEA and North America is driving a rise in cross‑border deal expectations. Latin America in particular is benefiting from nearshoring demand, while North America is facing more hesitancy due to tariffs and currency movements.
Valuations remain strong for premium assets
Multiples are rising modestly compared with 2025 and buyers are rewarding businesses with sticky revenue, strong margins and operational resilience. Asia remains the most competitive region for valuations, followed by North America.
Geopolitics now leads risk considerations
Executives are increasingly planning around trade uncertainty, currency movements and regulatory shifts. Sectors with minimal supply chain exposure are positioned for more stable growth.
How MSA helps you prepare for a successful exit
MSA’s advisory programs are designed to help owners navigate this market with clarity. Our EBITDA+ Six Steps to Success provides a structured method for strengthening the business, improving valuation drivers and reducing risk in the eyes of a buyer. The focus is on practical actions that increase commercial appeal and support a confident transaction process.
This includes:
enhancing revenue quality
improving margin performance
building a clearer strategic roadmap
structuring information for efficient due diligence
identifying and addressing value gaps early
preparing owners for buyer discussions and negotiation
The aim is not to time the market, but to ensure the business is prepared to excel in any market.
Practical steps to take now
Here are the priorities for owners entering 2026.
Review your revenue mix
Recurring revenue continues to be the strongest predictor of valuation. Assess contract strength, renewal patterns and customer concentration.
Strengthen your cashflow profile
Buyers are placing significant weight on margin resilience and cashflow consistency. Identify risks early and take targeted action to protect performance.
Refresh your strategic plan
A clear, evidence‑based plan improves buyer confidence and helps position your business as a premium asset.
Organise your information early
A well prepared data room signals professionalism and reduces delays in due diligence.
Align price expectations with the market
Overpricing remains one of the biggest reasons transactions stall. Ensure your valuation expectations reflect market realities.
Ready to understand what this market means for your business?
If you are considering an exit or want to understand how these trends influence your valuation, MSA can guide you through a structured assessment and support you in preparing for a successful transaction.