2026 predictions for business leaders: what matters most this year
2026 is shaping up to be a year defined by constraints rather than abundance. Energy isn’t infinite, talent isn’t free, capital isn’t patient, and regulation isn’t neutral. These pressures will influence how businesses allocate resources, structure deals, and compete for growth. For SME owners and founders, understanding these dynamics is critical to staying ahead.
At Morgan Shaw Advisory, we see a shift toward resilience and optionality. Growth alone is no longer the ultimate metric. Speed, adaptability, and disciplined execution will separate winners from laggards. Here’s what we believe will matter most this year.
Why this matters now
Global markets are recalibrating. Policy changes, geopolitical uncertainty, and technology-driven disruption are reshaping behaviour faster than legislation can catch up. For SMEs, this means traditional assumptions about capital flows, talent mobility, and competitive advantage are under pressure. Owners preparing for growth or exit need to anticipate these shifts early.
Five trends shaping 2026
1. Confidence, not tax, drives capital movement
California’s proposed wealth tax isn’t just about revenue. It signals a behavioural shift. When founders and investors price in illiquid asset risk, they move before laws take effect. Expect capital, talent, and headquarters to relocate in advance of policy changes. This will reshape innovation hubs and influence where deals get done.
2. Politics becomes a contest of legitimacy
Forget left versus right. The winning political narrative this year is about leakage versus legitimacy. Platforms built on transparency, audits, and accountability will resonate with voters. For businesses, this means compliance and governance aren’t just obligations, they’re competitive advantages.
3. Boring businesses outperform
The real winners aren’t chasing attention; they control inputs. Copper and critical minerals underpin AI, electrification, and defence. These sectors will quietly dominate value creation. Meanwhile, markets like Polymarket are accelerating truth discovery, challenging pundit-driven narratives.
4. SaaS faces structural pressure
SaaS is being unbundled. Most revenue comes from maintenance and migration, not licences. AI agents are attacking the glue that holds these economics together. Seat-based pricing and multi-year migration assumptions are under scrutiny.
5. M&A adapts, not disappears
Big tech still wants talent, IP, and speed. Regulatory and geopolitical constraints have changed the playbook. Expect more IP licensing and talent-first structures: acquihire without acquisition. Deals like Character.AI aren’t anomalies; they’re templates.
MSA perspective: discipline wins
Our advisory work reinforces a clear theme: businesses that prepare strategically outperform those that react. Through our EBITDA+ SIX STEPS TO SUCCESS™ framework, we help owners optimise for resilience and optionality. This means:
Building operational discipline early
Stress-testing growth assumptions under new constraints
Structuring deals to protect value and accelerate execution
Explore more:
Get ready for success: unleash your business potential (preparing your business for sale)
Driving business success: the proven process to bridge the gap (MSA’s six-step framework)
Mind the gap: why owners should strive for a higher business value than expected (strategies to increase valuation)
Actionable takeaways for 2026
Audit your dependencies: Where are you exposed to energy, talent, or regulatory risk?
Revisit pricing models: Are your revenue assumptions built for a world of AI-enabled efficiency?
Plan for optionality: Can you pivot quickly if capital or talent flows shift?
Strengthen governance: Transparency isn’t optional, it’s a differentiator.
Prepare for non-traditional deals: IP licensing and talent-first structures are gaining traction.
Ready to future-proof your business?
2026 rewards preparation, not prediction. If you’re planning growth or an exit, now is the time to act. Explore our resources or book a consultation to learn how MSA can help you optimise for resilience and value.
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✅ Read: Setting the right price for your business sale